MLB TARGETS: MAY 4TH

This is definitely an interesting five-game slate, with very few solid pitchers and a bit of rain and wind to worry about.
BY: RYAN NOONAN | DK PLAYBOOK

PITCHER 

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Stud

Dan Straily – MIA vs. TB – $9,600 – Through the season’s first month, Dan Straily leads the league in hard-hit rate against, allowing just 6.5% of at-bats against him to end in hard contact. His K/9 is up quite a bit as well, thanks to his massive 14 strikeout performance against the Padres two weeks ago. The Rays are one of the best teams in the league to target for strikeouts due to their 26% K-rate against right-handed pitching this season. This is a huge price jump for Straily, but you have to look at a five-game slate differently than a full 15-game slate.

Value

Chase Anderson – MIL vs. STL – $6,100 – It’s really difficult to find a value play at the position today that I feel comfortable recommending, but if this game plays I think Chase Anderson deserves a look. Pitching on the road in St. Louis is a positive park shift for Anderson who’s done a nice job of limiting hard contact, and thus home runs, to start the season, and it appears as though the wind will be blowing in tonight, making it an even more difficult run scoring environment.


CATCHER

Stud

J.T. Realmuto – MIA vs. TB – $3,700 – This recommendation hinges on where J.T. Realmuto hits in the lineup. Last night he was back towards the top, which is a bump for any player’s value due to the expected increase in at-bats, but that may change tonight against right-hander Matt Andriese. Take a wait-and-see approach with catchers tonight.

Value

Rene Rivera – NYM vs. ATL – $2,200 – Again, I recommend a wait-and-see approach to the position today, but if Rene Rivera is in the lineup against left-hander Jaime Garcia, I think he’s worth a look. His near-minimum salary allows you to spend up elsewhere, and Rivera has power upside that plays well against lefties, with a .356 wOBA against southpaws over the past few seasons.


FIRST BASE

Stud

Hanley Ramirez – BOS vs. BAL – $5,000 – Hanley Ramirez is locked in right now. His average fly ball distance is up 30 feet over the past two weeks, with a hard-hit rate and exit velocity that backs that up. Facing a right-handed pitcher might keep his ownership levels down, but the Red Sox have a slate-best 5.3 run implied team total on this slate.

Value

Justin Bour – MIA vs. TB – $3,200 – Justin Bour is swinging a hot bat right now, and his dirt cheap price puts him squarely in play tonight. His 48% hard-hit rate over the past two weeks is up 11% over his season total of 37% and he has the power upside that we want at first base for tournaments.


SECOND BASE

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Stud

Robinson Cano – SEA vs. LAA – $4,200 – Robinson Cano’s price has been in this range for most of the past week, and it’s just too cheap in my opinion. He’s a great cash game play with a hit in nine of his past 10 games.

Value

Jonathan Schoop – BAL vs. BOS – $4,100 – This is a great spot for Jonathan Schoop, a hitter with a large sample size of elite power against right-handed pitching who’s hitting in a great park for right-handed power. The Red Sox are rolling out Kyle Kendrick tonight at Fenway, making it a great night for a souvenir if you’re seated on top of the Green Monster.


THIRD BASE

Stud

Jose Reyes – NYM vs. ATL – $3,900 – Switch-hitting Jose Reyes has become a drastically different hitter depending on which side of the plate he’s swinging from. It’s not a huge sample size of at-bats, but Reyes has a 217 wRC+ and .492 wOBA against left-handed pitching dating back to the start of the 2016 season. That’ll play.

Value

Wilmer Flores – NYM vs. ATL – $3,000 – Right behind Jose Reyes in the list of hitters who crush left-handed pitching is his teammate, Wilmer Flores. Flores’ sample size is bigger and something that I trust as actionable, and his positional flexibility only helps his case for being in play on this slate.


SHORTSTOP

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Stud

Jean Segura – SEA vs. LAA – $4,600 – Jean Segura has been raking since coming back from the DL, with hits in seven of his eight games including four multi-hit games. He has decent power for a shortstop and can swipe bags too, making him viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Value

Andrelton Simmons – LAA vs. SEA – $3,300 – Andrelton Simmons is a nice under-the-radar play on this slate. He’s significantly better when facing a lefty, which he does tonight, and his exit velocity is up 11% over the past two weeks. I’d like to see him hit higher in the lineup, but if you need to save salary he’s worth a look here.


OUTFIELD

Stud

Mike Trout – LAA vs. SEA – $5,400 – Mike Trout enters play on Thursday night with a 16-game hitting streak and his ownership will likely be elevated tonight because he’s facing a left-hander in Ariel Miranda. That’s a good case for fading him in tournaments, but if you can afford him in cash games he’s a great play.

Value

Corey Dickerson – TB vs. MIA – $3,800 – Corey Dickerson is a great play in the outfield if you’re fading a likely popular Dan Straily tonight. Dickerson has a strong .252 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past two seasons, and hitting from the leadoff spot only helps his case here. 


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RyanFix) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.