There is a lot of data to digest when researching for golf. Course characteristics can tell us whether we want to favor long hitters, great putters or the best scramblers. Weather is crucial as strong wind early on Thursday would mean we want players teeing off later in the day. Figuring out exactly how good a golfer is relative to his DraftKings salary and the field sounds simple but is crucial.
The topic I’ll be focusing on in this week is recent form. Like every other stat in every DFS sport, these two topics are a piece of the puzzle rather than the whole pie. But knowing who comes into the event in good form does correlate with success on DraftKings. It can also help us project ownership in large-field GPPs such as this week’s Fantasy Golf Millionaire.
COMING IN HOT: RECENT FORM
1. Byeong-Hun An, $6,800
It’s been a breakout season for the 25-year-old An, who has made 14-of-15 cuts and has already booked three top-10s on the season. He’s been especially hot lately with an eighth at Wells Fargo, fifth at Byron Nelson, 24th at Europe’s BMW Championship and 25th at Memorial in his last four events. An’s Recent Adjusted Round Score of 68.3 is second-best among all players under $7,000 on DraftKings this week (via FantayLabs). Only Hideto Tanihara of the Japanese Tour has a better score. An has played the U.S. Open twice, finishing 23rd last season and missing the cut in 2015.
2. Matt Kuchar, $7,600
It’s never exciting to click Kuchar thanks to a perceived low ceiling. After all, he’s never won a major. However, the price reflects that as he’s priced around wildly erratic golfers such as J.B. Holmes, Patrick Reed, Bud Cauley and Kevin Chappell. Kuchar provides a very high floor as he’s made seven straight cuts at U.S. Opens, a run which includes four top-15s. Kuchar has also flashed upside lately with a fourth at Memorial, 12th at DEAN & DELUCA and ninth at Byron Nelson in his last three events.
3. Alexander Noren, $7,500
Noren is the hottest player most of the general public has never heard of. The Swede finished 10th at THE PLAYERS, beat a tough field to win Europe’s BMW PGA Championship and backed that up with a 15th at the Nordea Masters last week. A concern is Noren has shown very poorly at U.S. Opens in the past. He’s played four of them, missing the cut three times and finishing 51st.
4. Paul Casey, $8,400
Casey hasn’t missed a cut since January, quietly ringing up six top-20s in his last eight events played. That includes a sixth at The Masters, and two top-12s in May (Wells Fargo, DEAN & DELUCA). Casey’s Recent Adjusted Round Score of 68.0 is best among all players in the $8,000 range on DraftKings this week.
COMING IN COLD: RECENT FORM
1. Bryson DeChambeau, $6,800
One of the sexiest names in golf just a year ago, DeChambeau has hit the skids. He’s been one of the worst players on the PGA Tour this season, missing the cut in 10 of his last 14 events played. This horrific run includes six straight missed cuts for the ballyhooed Bryson.
2. Jim Furyk, $6,600
Perhaps the 47-year-old Furyk is simply done. Or maybe the 2016 wrist surgery has crippled him. Either way, Furyk is far more name than game at this point as he’s missed a whopping six straight cuts. Even at just $600 over the minimum, the former PGA Tour Player of the Year is a dangerous play.
3. Russell Henley, $7,200
The ball-striking specialist Henley flashed his upside earlier this year with a win at the Houston Open and an 11th at The Masters. But his last three results are 35th at THE PLAYERS and back-to-back missed cuts at Byron Nelson/St. Jude. Henley has never finished better than 42nd in any of his six U.S. Opens as a pro. He has the worst Recent Adjusted Round Score of anyone priced over $7,000 on DraftKings this week (via FantasyLabs).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is AdamLevitan) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.